Lebanon Navigates Tense Relations with New Syrian Regime Amid Prisoner Demands and Border Skirmishes

The new Syrian regime in Damascus is formally pressing Beirut for the release of thousands of Syrian prisoners from Lebanese jails, a demand that has significantly strained the nascent relationship between the two countries. [18] Lebanese officials have received these demands through various diplomatic channels, with reports suggesting that Damascus has warned of potential consequences, including border closures, if the matter is not resolved. [18] The prisoners in question range from those held on terrorism charges to Islamists, and while Lebanon is not entirely opposed to their release to alleviate prison overcrowding, it insists the process must adhere to legal and logistical protocols. [18, 19] This issue is a top priority for Damascus, viewing it as a humanitarian matter and a precondition for broader political and economic cooperation. [16] The demand for the release of prisoners is further complicated by recent military escalations along the volatile border. The new Syrian government has launched strikes against Hezbollah targets within Lebanon, following allegations that the group executed Syrian fighters. This has led to a series of cross-border incidents, including retaliatory shelling and a heightened military presence from both sides. [15, 26] These skirmishes underscore the deep-seated tensions and the potential for wider conflict as the new Syrian administration seeks to assert its authority and prevent arms smuggling to the Iran-backed group. [26, 34] Adding another layer of complexity to the already fraught situation is the recent arrest of numerous Syrian nationals by the Lebanese Army. In a series of raids, Lebanese authorities have detained over 60 Syrians for various offenses, including illegal entry and possession of weapons. [4, 7, 8, 10] These arrests, while part of Lebanon's efforts to control its borders and maintain internal security, have the potential to be interpreted by Damascus as a provocative move, further complicating diplomatic negotiations over the prisoner exchange and other outstanding issues. [4, 7, 31] Amidst these cross-border tensions, internal dynamics within Syria also play a role in shaping its foreign policy towards Lebanon. In this context, the Sheikh of the Druze community, Sami Abi al-Muna, has emphasized that the residents of Suwayda, a predominantly Druze province in southern Syria, do not seek separation from the Syrian state. [12, 21] This assertion of national unity, supported by Syrian President Ahmed al-Sharaa, who has stated that the people of Suwayda stand with the state and reject partition projects, could influence Damascus's approach to regional relations as it consolidates its authority. [24, 27] Understanding these internal Syrian dynamics is crucial for Beirut as it navigates the multifaceted challenges posed by its neighbor's new political landscape.